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Elon’s future: Autonomous cabs, vans and robot butlers
I know you’ve seen it all over the news. Elon Musk took to the stage at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank to spotlight what he says is the future of transportation … and to show off his army of cowboy-hat-wearing robots. Will any of this make it to production and into our homes? Well, I’ll get to that.
First up, the Cybercab
It’s Tesla’s version of a self-driving robo-taxi (skip to 54:00), with no steering wheel and no pedals. Musk says it’s 10 times safer than human drivers thanks to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
In 2023, a Tesla Model Y in FDS mode hit a student stepping off a school bus. In April, a Model S using it hit and killed a 28-year-old motorcyclist.
A National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigation published in April found 542 crashes, including 14 with fatalities, occurred in Tesla vehicles with Autopilot or FSD engaged between January 2018 and August 2023.
The expected price for the Cybercab? Under $30,000. Tesla’s goal is to get these robo-taxis on the streets in California and Texas next year. In 2026, the rollout would happen all across the country. Given how long it took Waymo and Cruise to get approval for their autonomous taxis, I’m not holding my breath.
Then, there’s the Robovan
It’s an autonomous EV that fits up to 20 passengers … or all the Ikea boxes you can Tetris in. The Robovan took a lap (skip to 1:10:00) around the test course. It looks neat (and sort of like a huge toaster), but no price was mentioned.
The operating cost for the Robovan is 5 to 10 cents per mile per passenger, which is a lot cheaper than a city bus. If Elon can pull it off, this would be great, and, as he said, we can turn parking lots into parks.
The main attraction: Optimus
Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, is designed to help around the house, act as a caregiver and keep you company. They’re 5 feet, 8 inches tall; they weigh 125 pounds; and they look a lot like the bots in Isaac Asimov’s “I, Robot.” One came out to pick up a few objects and shuffle around the stage to demonstrate its range of movement.
Another Optimus model danced around in a cowboy hat (skip to 1:30:00) and passed out cocktails. Giddyap. Here’s a bunch of Optimus bots dancing (skip to 1:16:00) to “Baby Don’t Hurt Me,” because … why not?
So, how much will your very own butler bot set you back? Between $20,000 and $30,000. Musk says AI’s capabilities are increasing by a factor of 10 every six to nine months, which means the Optimus robot should improve every day. But will you trust one in your home? Your call. I really, really, really want one!
Investors were underwhelmed
Tesla’s shares dropped 8% after the reveal. To put that into perspective, we’re talking $60 billion in value, gone. Why? Nothing Elon showed off is ready yet. Tesla also doesn’t have a stellar history of hitting its projected timelines or ensuring product quality.
In 2016, Musk said safe autonomous cars would be ready for prime time in 2018. It’s now 2024 and the tech isn’t there yet. In 2019, he said his operational robo-taxis would be zooming around a year later. Heck, even this event-slash-press conference was supposed to happen in August and got delayed.
Big dreams, sure, but what about reality?
The biggest obstacle is Tesla’s “black box” technology. The AI that runs cars is so locked down that a Tesla engineer says it’s “nearly impossible” to “see what went wrong when it misbehaves and causes an accident.” That is frightening to me.
Cybercabs by 2025? We’ll see. Robovans on every street? Someday. Optimus cooking dinner? I’ll believe it when my robot chef brings me breakfast in bed.
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Tags: autonomous vehicles, Elon Musk, Optimus, robo-taxis, robotics, Tesla, Tesla Cybercab, Tesla Robovan
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