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Coronavirus

Staggering graphs predict when COVID-19 deaths will peak in every state

One way people are coping with the coronavirus pandemic and social distancing is by using teleconferencing apps to keep in touch with family and friends. Apps like FaceTime and Zoom make it easier to feel connected to the outside world.

Unfortunately, hackers are taking advantage of these helpful programs by spoofing sites to rip people off. Tap or click here for ways to stay protected.

But there are other ways to cope. Many are staying updated on the latest coronavirus details, hoping good news is on the way. Some of the most useful information on the disease has just been released. Are you keeping up to date?

Forecasting COVID-19 impact for each state

Researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics have created a tool that predicts health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months. It includes information for each U.S. state and the numbers are shocking.

The study used data from the World Health Organization and local and federal governments. It projects not only the number of estimated deaths but also the demand for hospital services, including the availability of ventilators, regular hospital beds and intensive care unit (ICU) beds.

Inside the horrifying numbers

These projections are based on the assumption that social distancing will continue until the end of May 2020.

In locations without social distancing measures currently in place, researches assumed they will be in place within seven days of the last model update. If not, the number of deaths and the burden on hospital systems will be higher than projected.

Nationally, the peak of the pandemic is expected to hit the second week of April. It’s estimated that a total of 64,175 hospital beds, 17,309 ICU beds and 19,481 ventilators will be needed at the peak. Keep in mind, the date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May.

Here’s where things get really scary. It’s estimated there will be 81,114 deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S. over the next 4 months. Deaths are expected to drop below 10 per day between May 31 and June 6. It appears we have a long way to go before things start to turn around.

Let’s take a look at a couple of the hardest-hit states to date, New York and Washington.

In New York, the number of deaths per day is expected to peak on April 10, 2020, with 845 COVID-19 deaths. The state is expected to have a total of 16,090 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.

covid19.healthdata.org

As for peak hospital resource use in New York, that’s projected to be April 9, 2020. A total of 75,224 beds will be needed but there are only 13,010 available. ICU numbers are no better as 11,621 ICU beds will be needed but only 718 are available.

Numbers like these are the reason we all need to be taking this pandemic seriously and practice social distancing. If you can stay home, stay home. Hospitals around the country are not equipped to handle this drastic increase in patients.

Washington state was one of the first places in the U.S. with a patient confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. The numbers there are a little more encouraging than what we found in New York, but scary nonetheless.

In Washington, the number of deaths per day are expected to peak on April 13, 2020, with 23 COVID-19 deaths. The state is expected to have a total of 1,233 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.

covid19.healthdata.org

Peak hospital resource use is expected to be April 15, 2020, with a total of 2,455 beds needed and 4,907 available. It’s projected that Washington will need 367 ICU beds but only 341 are available.

How to find COVID-19 projections for your state

If you want to see the numbers for your state, go to covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Once you’re on the site you’ll see a drop-down box with the words “United States of America” inside. Click on that box and scroll until you find your state.

The page will update with local charts showing you hospital resource use, deaths per day and total deaths. For each chart, you can hover your cursor over the graph to see data for specific days. Move it left or right to get that day’s information.

This study is meant to inform you of what’s going on and to aid in the development and implementation of strategies to try to mitigate any gaps in resources. As you can see from the charts, many hospitals in the U.S. are not prepared to handle such a huge surge in patients.

That’s why it’s important we all do our part to help slow the spread of COVID-19. Keep washing your hands regularly with soap and warm water for at least 20 seconds and follow social distancing guidelines.

There are more things you can do to stay protected from this deadly disease, too. Here are a few articles to help you get through this pandemic safely:

Follow these safety practices, get information from trusted sources like the CDC and WHO, and we’ll make it through this together. Stay safe out there!

The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as health or medical advice. Always consult a physician or other qualified health provider regarding any questions you may have regarding a medical condition, advice, or health objectives.

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